As of August 6th, only 22 European new players have signed a contract with an NHL organization – that’s a 46% decline compared to the number on the same day in 2008. The number of European NHL rookies in the upcoming season could be the lowest in many years.

Last year – the first summer without a transfer agreement between the NHL and European leagues – the drop was insignificant. While 49 transfers were registered in 2007, 45 European rookies joined NHL clubs last year.

Although without any transfer agreement European free-agents can sign with NHL clubs at any time – and some more signings will definitely happen – the number of European players going to the NHL this year will be reduced by roughly 50 percent, compared with previous seasons.

Also the total numbers of transfers from Europe to the NHL (including European and North American returnees) dropped from 55 to 37 (-33%).

The numbers coincide with the fact that only 24.9 percent of the 2009 draftees were Europeans – the lowest percentage of the new millennium.

The numbers don’t necessarily mean that there will be less Europeans in the league next season. Only 25 players who played at least 10 NHL games last season transferred to Europe compared to 46 players (-46%) one year ago. 22 of those are Europeans. And there might be about a dozen of Europeans who had to bide their time in the AHL and who have already signed a contract in Europe or are still looking for a job opportunity on their native continent.

Some more current Euro-NHL transfer facts:

• 11 of the 22 new Euro-NHLers are Swedes which is still a 27% decrease compared to last year.
  
  
• Finns (4) and Slovaks (3) follow and there was one signing each of players from Belarus, the Czech Republic, Denmark and Switzerland.
  
  
• No signing of a new Russian player has been announced by any NHL organization despite media rumours. Last year, eight Russian players were signed.
  
  
• The top European “exporters” this year are the Swedish clubs Frölunda Gothenburg (5), Färjestad Karlstad (4), and the Finnish clubs Espoo Blues (3) and Ilves Tampere (3).
  
  
• Of the 25 NHLers (minimum 10 games) signed by European clubs, 16 are signed by KHL clubs (13 Russia, 2 Belarus, 1 Latvia), 4 players went to the Swedish Elitserien, 3 to the Swiss National League A and 2 to the Czech Extraliga.
  
  
• The NHL players going to Europe are from Finland (5), Sweden (5), the Czech Republic (4), Russia (4), Canada (2), Switzerland (2), Austria (1), Slovakia (1) and the United States (1).
  
  
• The average age of the new NHLers from Europe is 22, of the returnees 27 and of the NHLers going to Europe 30.

Why has there been such a dramatic decline in transfers this summer? There are several possible reasons:

• Fewer European prospects. Sweden is the only European country right now that has a positive trend in producing talent. Russia and Finland have stalled, while the Czech Republic and Slovakia are in a substantial decline.
  
  
• Oversaturation. Were so many Europeans signed earlier that the cross-ocean traffic needs a break? Many of the Europeans signed in recent years proved to be not of NHL calibre or they were not NHL-ready. Signing Europeans for the affiliate AHL clubs makes little sense.
  
  
• Re-focus on development at home. An IIHF study a few years ago showed that European players develop better at home. Unless you have the skills of the Malkins or Ovechkins, the chance of making it directly the NHL as an 18- or 19-year-old are low. While the standard formula for NHL clubs is to send the players to their second-tier team in the AHL, experience shows that it makes more sense for Europeans to develop in a European top league until they are NHL-ready.
  
  Actually, there is evidence that NHL organizations, players and agents react to the reality as more and more prospects signed by NHL clubs stay with their European teams “on loan” until NHL maturity. Even though there were still eight U20 players signed, not all of them will play in North America. Andreas Engqvist and Philip Larsen have already been announced to stay with their Swedish teams in 2009-2010.
  
  Or players like Jonas Gustavsson (25) or Andres Ambühl (26) have simply not been considered until they have become stars in their leagues and national teams.
  
  
• Emerging KHL. The statistics show that there’s no doubt that the low numbers are also a consequence of the emerging Russian Kontinental Hockey League as no KHL player is among the 22 European rookies but 16 of the 25 transfers from the NHL to Europe are done by KHL clubs. The money invested by sponsors and regional governments make KHL clubs the richest in Europe and thus the most attractive for many players who are looking – or have to look – for opportunities outside of the NHL.
  
  The KHL’s rules for restricted free agents – which virtually bind the player to his club until he is 28 – is another factor.
  
  
• Lack of transfer agreement. It is very difficult to determine whether the absence of a transfer agreement plays any major role in the decline of European signings in the NHL. Superficially, it’s easy to point at this as a reason and many NHL club managers do. But fact is that basically every European player who is of NHL potential has an NHL out-clause or signs only one-year contracts with his European club, which means that the player is free to leave every summer if he gets an NHL offer.
  
  Without a transfer agreement, not only do the NHL clubs not have to pay the $200,000 per player, they can sign Europeans all year round. Under the old transfer agreement, basically no signings were possible after June 15.

The low numbers – may they be coincidence or not – the changes are significant and it’s likely that a transfer agreement with clear rules would make the life of players and club managers easier on both sides of the ocean. But whether this is a major reason for the decline, is too early to tell.

MARTIN MERK