The U.S. defeated Czechia 7-0 when these two nations last clashed at the World Juniors on 29 December 2020. Will the 2022 World Junior quarter-finals see a Czech upset?
The 2022 IIHF World Junior Championship has already witnessed a bona fide upset. When the Latvians topped Czechia 5-2 on Ralfs Bergmanis’s hat trick on Sunday, it was their first win ever after being outscored 19-5 in the previous three matchups. It was the sensation of the group stage.
But now the quarter-finals are here. And this is where we traditionally separate, perhaps not “the men from the boys,” but the more advanced teenage hockey stars from their not-quite-as-talented peers. Hang on, there are a whole bunch of 20-year-olds here this year! (Due to the amnesty granted to players who normally would be overaged after the Omicron-based postponement of the tournament that began back in December.) This is getting complicated.
Regardless, what are the odds that we’ll witness another shocker in Wednesday’s do-or-die games? Let’s take a closer look at our four quarter-finals at Edmonton’s Rogers Place.
But now the quarter-finals are here. And this is where we traditionally separate, perhaps not “the men from the boys,” but the more advanced teenage hockey stars from their not-quite-as-talented peers. Hang on, there are a whole bunch of 20-year-olds here this year! (Due to the amnesty granted to players who normally would be overaged after the Omicron-based postponement of the tournament that began back in December.) This is getting complicated.
Regardless, what are the odds that we’ll witness another shocker in Wednesday’s do-or-die games? Let’s take a closer look at our four quarter-finals at Edmonton’s Rogers Place.
Preview Quarter-Finals - 2022 IIHF World Junior Championship
Which teams will survive the World Juniors quater-finals?
Finland vs. Germany (10:00 local time, 18:00 CET, 19:00 EET)
Coach Antti Pennanen’s Finnish team will be in a snarly mood after dropping their round-robin finale 6-3 to Canada. The 2021 bronze medalists, who own five gold medals all-time (1987, 1998, 2014, 2016, 2019), are the clear favourites to advance over Germany.
Generating offence from a strong two-way game, Suomi is tied with the Americans for the second-most goals (22) and has tallied the most power play goals so far (nine, second to Canada’s success rate at 56.2 percent). Flip side: the Finnish penalty kill took it on the chin against Canada with two PP goals surrendered and now sits at a tournament-low 50 percent (four goals against on eight penalty kills). But this Germany team (3-for-16 on the PP) is unlikely to take advantage with the man advantage.
Make no mistake: the Germans will make Finland work for it. Forward Bennet Rossmy’s hot hand – with the opening goal in Germany’s last two games – is a nice asset to have. But the top Finnish line features two legitimate scoring title contenders in Joakim Kemmel and Aatu Raty (both 3+6=9), along with captain Roni Hirvonen (2+4=6). If Germany’s 5-1 opening loss to the Americans provides any kind of indication, coach Tobias Abstreiter’s boys won’t be able to hold the Finns off indefinitely.
Germany’s best World Junior finish was fifth in 1981. For Deutschland to exceed that with this roster would be one of the greatest upsets of all time.
Sweden vs. Latvia (13:30 local time, 21:30 CET, 22:30 EET)
2022 already marks the greatest Latvian run in World Junior history. In 2009, when the Baltic nation peaked at eighth place, it didn’t get to play in the quarter-finals under the then-existing format. This year, shocking the Czechs on the strength of Bruno Bruveris’ stellar 33-save performance has left Latvia seeded sixth overall heading into the playoffs.
It’s a wonderful moment for the country that will co-host the 2023 IIHF World Championship with Finland (Tampere and Riga). It’s also something that was totally unexpected, given that the Latvians were promoted due to the suspension from participation of Russia and Belarus.
Unfortunately for Latvian fans, the Cinderella story is almost certain to end against Sweden. Whether or not Tomas Monten’s talented crew succeeds in capturing the gold medal in their coach’s final stint behind the World Junior beach, the Juniorkronorna are prohibitively favoured to advance here. They have never lost to the Latvians in four previous encounters and have outscored them 34-8.
Theoretically, the path to a Latvian upset looks like this. First, grab an early lead, since the Swedes typically settle into a patient, confident groove if they get ahead. Two, play 5-on-5 as much as possible, as Sweden boasts the tournament’s third-best power play (6-for-11, 54.5 percent) and top penalty kill (one goal against on 13 disadvantages). Third, get another show-stealing effort out of Bruveris in net.
The Latvians have absolutely nothing to lose, but it’ll be hard for them to replicate the emotional high of defeating Czechia. It’ll be even harder for them to match Sweden’s balanced attack.
Only two Latvian skaters have three or more points: captain Ralfs Bergmanis (3+2=5) and forward Girts Silkalns (0+3=3). In contrast, Sweden has eight players in that category, including captain Emil Andrae (3+4=7), Oskar Olausson (1+4=5), and Fabian Lysell (1+3=4). And the reality is that the Swedes still have a lot more to give offensively. Sharpshooter Jonathan Lekkerimaki, for instance, is still looking for his first World Junior goal (0+3=3).
Unless Swedish starting goalie Jesper Wallstedt’s wall impersonation crumbles like the Berlin Wall in 1989, expect to see the Juniorkronorna in the semi-finals.
Canada vs. Switzerland (17:00 local time, 7pm ET, 1:00 CET)
At the IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship, Switzerland usually gives Canada a tough test. Remember the 6-3 Swiss group-stage win on 21 May in Helsinki with captain Nico Hischier scoring the eventual winner?
Conversely, at the 2022 World Juniors, Canada versus Switzerland might be the biggest quarter-final mismatch out there.
Under head coach Dave Cameron, Canadians are running roughshod over their opponents, leading the tournament with 27 goals in four games. That’s more than three times as many as the Swiss (eight goals), who are having real problems putting the puck in the net. At least they’ve surpassed their historic low of five goals set in 1991 and 2021 under current coach Marco Bayer. But that doesn’t say much for their chances of upsetting Canada.
The one area where these two sides match up reasonably evenly is on the penalty kill. Both Canada and Switzerland have allowed just two goals on 11 disadvantages thus far (81.8 efficiency). However, that stat seems unlikely to stand up for Switzerland, given Canada’s tournament-leading power play (6-for-10, 60 percent) and the way forwards from Ridly Greig to Tyler Foerster ferociously crashed the net in the 6-3 win over Finland to top Group A.
Even if the Canadians take bad penalties the way it did in the third period against Finland, a Swiss PP clicking at just 13.3 percent (2-for-15) is unlikely to make them pay.
Strikingly, Canada’s top two scorers – captain Mason McTavish (7+6=13) and legend-at-age-17 Connor Bedard (3+4=7) – have more goals between them than the entire Swiss team.
With the Swiss defence unable to produce any goals so far in Edmonton, and Canadian starting goalie Dylan Garand facing an average of fewer than 24 shots per game in his three games, there doesn’t appear to be a path to Swiss victory. That is, barring a goaltending showcase that eclipses the one by the U.S.’s Jim Craig in the 1980 Olympic “Miracle on Ice” win over the Soviets.
Most likely, the Canadians will score early and often to put this one away and head to the semis. Canada has outscored Switzerland 24-7 in four previous quarter-final meetings: 8-3 in 2000, 4-1 in 2011, 4-1 in 2014, and 8-2 in 2018.
United States vs. Czechia (20:30 local time, 10:30pm ET, 4:30 CET)
The fact that the Czechs dropped their round-robin finale 5-2 to Latvia cannot inspire confidence among their fans. Czechia has truly sagged since giving the Finns a good tussle in a 4-3 shootout loss
But the Americans – despite amassing a perfect 4-0 record and 22-4 goal difference to top Group B – also showed some chinks in their armour in their last group stage game. Leading Sweden 3-0 with under nine minutes to play, the defending champs allowed the Juniorkronorna to claw their way back into the game and had to hang on for a 3-2 victory.
That experience might serve coach Nate Leaman’s group well in the playoff crucible, as they didn’t face any significant adversity in their first three wins over Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. The U.S. has still never trailed at these World Juniors.
Big picture-wise, captain Brock Faber, fellow defenceman Tyler Kleven, and forwards Landon Slaggert, and Brett Berard – the four returnees from 2021’s golden squad – haven’t even lost a World Junior game since falling 5-3 to Russia in last year’s opener.
Bottom line: the Americans have the edge in just about every department, including speed, skill, depth, confidence, and experience.
From leading scorer Thomas Bordeleau (1+6=7) to fourth-line threat Sasha Pastujov (1+3=4 in just 8:37 of average ice time), all U.S. forwards have produced at least one point. Unless veteran Czech captain Jan Mysak (3+2=5) has the game of his life and either Jan Bednar or Tomas Suchanek completely outduels the U.S.’s Kaidan Mbereko in net, the Americans should advance.
Historically, the U.S has dominated the Czechs in World Junior quarter-finals. The Czechs won 4-1 in 1998, but since then, the Americans have eliminated them five straight times: 4-3 in 2003, 2-1 in 2006, 7-0 in 2013, 7-0 in 2016, and 3-1 in 2019.
Coach Antti Pennanen’s Finnish team will be in a snarly mood after dropping their round-robin finale 6-3 to Canada. The 2021 bronze medalists, who own five gold medals all-time (1987, 1998, 2014, 2016, 2019), are the clear favourites to advance over Germany.
Generating offence from a strong two-way game, Suomi is tied with the Americans for the second-most goals (22) and has tallied the most power play goals so far (nine, second to Canada’s success rate at 56.2 percent). Flip side: the Finnish penalty kill took it on the chin against Canada with two PP goals surrendered and now sits at a tournament-low 50 percent (four goals against on eight penalty kills). But this Germany team (3-for-16 on the PP) is unlikely to take advantage with the man advantage.
Make no mistake: the Germans will make Finland work for it. Forward Bennet Rossmy’s hot hand – with the opening goal in Germany’s last two games – is a nice asset to have. But the top Finnish line features two legitimate scoring title contenders in Joakim Kemmel and Aatu Raty (both 3+6=9), along with captain Roni Hirvonen (2+4=6). If Germany’s 5-1 opening loss to the Americans provides any kind of indication, coach Tobias Abstreiter’s boys won’t be able to hold the Finns off indefinitely.
Germany’s best World Junior finish was fifth in 1981. For Deutschland to exceed that with this roster would be one of the greatest upsets of all time.
Sweden vs. Latvia (13:30 local time, 21:30 CET, 22:30 EET)
2022 already marks the greatest Latvian run in World Junior history. In 2009, when the Baltic nation peaked at eighth place, it didn’t get to play in the quarter-finals under the then-existing format. This year, shocking the Czechs on the strength of Bruno Bruveris’ stellar 33-save performance has left Latvia seeded sixth overall heading into the playoffs.
It’s a wonderful moment for the country that will co-host the 2023 IIHF World Championship with Finland (Tampere and Riga). It’s also something that was totally unexpected, given that the Latvians were promoted due to the suspension from participation of Russia and Belarus.
Unfortunately for Latvian fans, the Cinderella story is almost certain to end against Sweden. Whether or not Tomas Monten’s talented crew succeeds in capturing the gold medal in their coach’s final stint behind the World Junior beach, the Juniorkronorna are prohibitively favoured to advance here. They have never lost to the Latvians in four previous encounters and have outscored them 34-8.
Theoretically, the path to a Latvian upset looks like this. First, grab an early lead, since the Swedes typically settle into a patient, confident groove if they get ahead. Two, play 5-on-5 as much as possible, as Sweden boasts the tournament’s third-best power play (6-for-11, 54.5 percent) and top penalty kill (one goal against on 13 disadvantages). Third, get another show-stealing effort out of Bruveris in net.
The Latvians have absolutely nothing to lose, but it’ll be hard for them to replicate the emotional high of defeating Czechia. It’ll be even harder for them to match Sweden’s balanced attack.
Only two Latvian skaters have three or more points: captain Ralfs Bergmanis (3+2=5) and forward Girts Silkalns (0+3=3). In contrast, Sweden has eight players in that category, including captain Emil Andrae (3+4=7), Oskar Olausson (1+4=5), and Fabian Lysell (1+3=4). And the reality is that the Swedes still have a lot more to give offensively. Sharpshooter Jonathan Lekkerimaki, for instance, is still looking for his first World Junior goal (0+3=3).
Unless Swedish starting goalie Jesper Wallstedt’s wall impersonation crumbles like the Berlin Wall in 1989, expect to see the Juniorkronorna in the semi-finals.
Canada vs. Switzerland (17:00 local time, 7pm ET, 1:00 CET)
At the IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship, Switzerland usually gives Canada a tough test. Remember the 6-3 Swiss group-stage win on 21 May in Helsinki with captain Nico Hischier scoring the eventual winner?
Conversely, at the 2022 World Juniors, Canada versus Switzerland might be the biggest quarter-final mismatch out there.
Under head coach Dave Cameron, Canadians are running roughshod over their opponents, leading the tournament with 27 goals in four games. That’s more than three times as many as the Swiss (eight goals), who are having real problems putting the puck in the net. At least they’ve surpassed their historic low of five goals set in 1991 and 2021 under current coach Marco Bayer. But that doesn’t say much for their chances of upsetting Canada.
The one area where these two sides match up reasonably evenly is on the penalty kill. Both Canada and Switzerland have allowed just two goals on 11 disadvantages thus far (81.8 efficiency). However, that stat seems unlikely to stand up for Switzerland, given Canada’s tournament-leading power play (6-for-10, 60 percent) and the way forwards from Ridly Greig to Tyler Foerster ferociously crashed the net in the 6-3 win over Finland to top Group A.
Even if the Canadians take bad penalties the way it did in the third period against Finland, a Swiss PP clicking at just 13.3 percent (2-for-15) is unlikely to make them pay.
Strikingly, Canada’s top two scorers – captain Mason McTavish (7+6=13) and legend-at-age-17 Connor Bedard (3+4=7) – have more goals between them than the entire Swiss team.
With the Swiss defence unable to produce any goals so far in Edmonton, and Canadian starting goalie Dylan Garand facing an average of fewer than 24 shots per game in his three games, there doesn’t appear to be a path to Swiss victory. That is, barring a goaltending showcase that eclipses the one by the U.S.’s Jim Craig in the 1980 Olympic “Miracle on Ice” win over the Soviets.
Most likely, the Canadians will score early and often to put this one away and head to the semis. Canada has outscored Switzerland 24-7 in four previous quarter-final meetings: 8-3 in 2000, 4-1 in 2011, 4-1 in 2014, and 8-2 in 2018.
United States vs. Czechia (20:30 local time, 10:30pm ET, 4:30 CET)
The fact that the Czechs dropped their round-robin finale 5-2 to Latvia cannot inspire confidence among their fans. Czechia has truly sagged since giving the Finns a good tussle in a 4-3 shootout loss
But the Americans – despite amassing a perfect 4-0 record and 22-4 goal difference to top Group B – also showed some chinks in their armour in their last group stage game. Leading Sweden 3-0 with under nine minutes to play, the defending champs allowed the Juniorkronorna to claw their way back into the game and had to hang on for a 3-2 victory.
That experience might serve coach Nate Leaman’s group well in the playoff crucible, as they didn’t face any significant adversity in their first three wins over Germany, Switzerland, and Austria. The U.S. has still never trailed at these World Juniors.
Big picture-wise, captain Brock Faber, fellow defenceman Tyler Kleven, and forwards Landon Slaggert, and Brett Berard – the four returnees from 2021’s golden squad – haven’t even lost a World Junior game since falling 5-3 to Russia in last year’s opener.
Bottom line: the Americans have the edge in just about every department, including speed, skill, depth, confidence, and experience.
From leading scorer Thomas Bordeleau (1+6=7) to fourth-line threat Sasha Pastujov (1+3=4 in just 8:37 of average ice time), all U.S. forwards have produced at least one point. Unless veteran Czech captain Jan Mysak (3+2=5) has the game of his life and either Jan Bednar or Tomas Suchanek completely outduels the U.S.’s Kaidan Mbereko in net, the Americans should advance.
Historically, the U.S has dominated the Czechs in World Junior quarter-finals. The Czechs won 4-1 in 1998, but since then, the Americans have eliminated them five straight times: 4-3 in 2003, 2-1 in 2006, 7-0 in 2013, 7-0 in 2016, and 3-1 in 2019.