Host Canada had a bad start into the tournament against Czechia.
photo: Matt Zambonin / IIHF
It’s not possible to dismiss hosts Canada after only one game. There is too much talent; the tournament has only just begun; there’s plenty of time. And yet an opening-night loss has been a huge telling factor throughout the history of the World Junior Championship.
Consider that in the 46 previous incarnations of the tournament, the gold medal team has won its first game 42 times.
Consider (part 2), however, that all four opening losses that resulted in gold occurred in North America – 1999, 2011, 2019, 2021 – and that two of those four have happened in the last three years. Let’s have a look.
The 23rd World Juniors took place in Winnipeg and surrounding communities, but on Boxing Day at the Winnipeg Arena, Sweden defeated Russia, 4-2. Marcus Kristoffersson had a sort of Gordie Howe international hat trick, scoring once, adding two assists, and earning a game misconduct for boarding! Russia learned from that loss and cleared the table the rest of the way, winning its next three games in the round robin before winning twice in overtime in the playoffs. Denis Arkhipov was the hero in the quarter-finals against Finland, and Artyom Chubarov beat Roberto Luongo at 5:13 in OT of the gold-medal game to relegate Canada to silver.
The most famous – or infamous, depending on perspective – opening loss saw Canada beat Russia, 6-3, in Buffalo on 26 December 2010. This could hardly be construed an upset or surprise, and to see these teams advance to the gold medal game was also unsurprising. And for two periods, Canada played like it had for most of the tournament, dominating and leading 3-0, the gold medal clearly in sight. But Mark Visentin had his worst period in goal, and Dave Cameron’s team couldn’t stop the bloodletting until Russia had built a 5-3 lead. Game over. A sure Canadian gold turned into a devastating silver, and Russia, opening-night losers, had done what it had 12 years earlier in Winnipeg and won gold after that first-night blemish.
Finland’s recent and unprecedented success started with gold at the 2018 U18 and continued a year later at the World Juniors in Vancouver. But during the preliminary round Suomi hardly looked like shoe-ins for gold. They lost their opener to Sweden, 2-1, and closed out the four-game preliminary round with another loss, 4-1 to the United States. But they regained their mojo in the quarters, eliminating Canada on Toni Utunen’s overtime goal. They crushed Switzerland, 6-1, in the semis, and then, like Russia in 2011, exacted revenge on their opening night victors by beating the Americans, 3-2, for gold.
Most recently, the U.S. lost their first game and rallied to win gold in 2021. Their opener was a Christmas night 5-3 loss to Russia, after which they won six in a row to take first place. Indeed, they won their next three round-robin games without surrendering a goal and ended with another shutout, 2-0, over Canada for gold.
So Canada’s opening 5-2 loss last night to Czechia isn’t the end of the world, and if they’re going to rally for gold they’re on the right side of the Atlantic. But it’s still a significant obstacle to overcome. Will the odds relegate Canada to a finish less than gold, or can they be just the fifth team to lose at the start and go on to climb the top of the podium?
Consider that in the 46 previous incarnations of the tournament, the gold medal team has won its first game 42 times.
Consider (part 2), however, that all four opening losses that resulted in gold occurred in North America – 1999, 2011, 2019, 2021 – and that two of those four have happened in the last three years. Let’s have a look.
The 23rd World Juniors took place in Winnipeg and surrounding communities, but on Boxing Day at the Winnipeg Arena, Sweden defeated Russia, 4-2. Marcus Kristoffersson had a sort of Gordie Howe international hat trick, scoring once, adding two assists, and earning a game misconduct for boarding! Russia learned from that loss and cleared the table the rest of the way, winning its next three games in the round robin before winning twice in overtime in the playoffs. Denis Arkhipov was the hero in the quarter-finals against Finland, and Artyom Chubarov beat Roberto Luongo at 5:13 in OT of the gold-medal game to relegate Canada to silver.
The most famous – or infamous, depending on perspective – opening loss saw Canada beat Russia, 6-3, in Buffalo on 26 December 2010. This could hardly be construed an upset or surprise, and to see these teams advance to the gold medal game was also unsurprising. And for two periods, Canada played like it had for most of the tournament, dominating and leading 3-0, the gold medal clearly in sight. But Mark Visentin had his worst period in goal, and Dave Cameron’s team couldn’t stop the bloodletting until Russia had built a 5-3 lead. Game over. A sure Canadian gold turned into a devastating silver, and Russia, opening-night losers, had done what it had 12 years earlier in Winnipeg and won gold after that first-night blemish.
Finland’s recent and unprecedented success started with gold at the 2018 U18 and continued a year later at the World Juniors in Vancouver. But during the preliminary round Suomi hardly looked like shoe-ins for gold. They lost their opener to Sweden, 2-1, and closed out the four-game preliminary round with another loss, 4-1 to the United States. But they regained their mojo in the quarters, eliminating Canada on Toni Utunen’s overtime goal. They crushed Switzerland, 6-1, in the semis, and then, like Russia in 2011, exacted revenge on their opening night victors by beating the Americans, 3-2, for gold.
Most recently, the U.S. lost their first game and rallied to win gold in 2021. Their opener was a Christmas night 5-3 loss to Russia, after which they won six in a row to take first place. Indeed, they won their next three round-robin games without surrendering a goal and ended with another shutout, 2-0, over Canada for gold.
So Canada’s opening 5-2 loss last night to Czechia isn’t the end of the world, and if they’re going to rally for gold they’re on the right side of the Atlantic. But it’s still a significant obstacle to overcome. Will the odds relegate Canada to a finish less than gold, or can they be just the fifth team to lose at the start and go on to climb the top of the podium?