The first thing you need to know about the 2023 IIHF World Junior Championship is that it’s all about narrow gaps. And that’s what makes this beloved U20 showcase so thrilling and unpredictable.

When the puck drops at the Finland-Switzerland opener on 26 December, it’ll be just 128 days since Canada dramatically edged the Finns 3-2 in the 2022 final in Edmonton, Alberta. That’s the narrowest gap between World Juniors in hockey history. It means we’ll see a boatload of returning talent in Halifax, Nova Scotia and Moncton, New Brunswick.

Granted, the talent gaps between the 10 national teams are not quite as narrow as the margin by which 2022 tournament MVP Mason McTavish miraculously stopped the puck from flipping over goalie Dylan Garand into the net in the gold-medal overtime.

That said, no country has won back-to-back World Juniors since the Canadians earned their record-tying fifth straight gold medal in Ottawa in 2009. And out of the 13 WJC gold medal games since 2009, nine have been decided by one goal and four by two goals.

Are you ready for some more heartstopping magic in the Maritimes? Going in alphabetical order, let’s preview each nation’s chances of success in 2023.

Austria

No teams were relegated at either the 2021 or 2022 World Juniors due to the pandemic. But relegation is back, and that could be bad news for the Austrians. They finished in last place at the previous two tournaments, in which they were outscored 29-1 and 20-4 respectively.

Rogle BK’s decision to not release star centre Marco Kasper – Detroit’s 2022 first-round pick (eighth overall) – for these World Juniors is a major blow to Nova Scotia-born coach Kirk Furey’s hopes of making a splash in Halifax. Up front, Austria will look instead to Vinzenz Rohrer, a ‘22 Montreal third-rounder, to bring scoring and defensive smarts. Scouts will also monitor how 17-year-old draft-eligible centre Ian Scherzer – another Rogle prospect – builds on his WJC debut in August, where he had a goal and two assists.

However, even if draft-eligible blueliner David Reinbacher lives up to the Swiss National League (NL) potential he’s shown with Kloten (14 points in 28 games), it’ll be tough for Austria’s under-siege goaltenders to bar the door in Group A. Simply surviving for 2024 would be a welcome Christmas present for this group.

Canada

Even as Hockey Canada works to revitalize its culture, the host nation is justifiably pegged as the on-ice favourite. Head coach Dennis Williams of the WHL’s Everett Silvertips, who was an assistant with August’s golden crew, has a tremendous arsenal with the defending champs.

It starts with the dynamic duo of captain Shane Wright and Connor Bedard. At the 2021 U18 Worlds in Texas, they racked up 14 points apiece to lead Canada to gold. Wright, who was unmistakably disappointed to go fourth overall to the Seattle Kraken instead of first overall to the Montreal Canadiens this year, makes his World Junior debut as the number one centre. He has eight games of NHL experience and a chip on his shoulder. Bedard, 17, is a virtual lock to be the #1 pick in 2023. After torching the WHL with 64 points in 28 games for the Regina Pats so far, he could become just the third 17-year-old after Eric Lindros (1991) and Jesse Puljujarvi (2016) to lead the World Juniors in points. (Wayne Gretzky was the youngest scoring champ ever at age 16 in 1978 with 17 points – incidentally, the same number of points as “The Big E” and “Pulju.”)

The second line boasts Logan Stankoven, the 2022 CHL Player of the Year with the Kamloops Blazers and the leading World Junior points-getter (4+6=10) among returning 2022 Canadian forwards, and top University of Michigan scorer Adam Fantilli (11+15=26 in 16 games), who’s expected to go second overall after Bedard. It’s a four-line rotation that will also benefit from the two-way play and physicality of Dylan Guenther (Arizona Coyotes) and returnees like Joshua Roy and Brennan Othmann.

It’s hard to go wrong with an experienced top defensive pairing that pairs the slick savvy of Olen Zellweger – who led all blueliners with 11 points in August – and the size and enthusiastic commitment of assistant captain Ethan Del Mastro. And how about Brandt Clarke? Enthusiastically touted by Drew Doughty, this L.A. Kings prospect with nine NHL games to his credit was the most hotly debated exclusion from the last Canadian squad and could be a game-changer.

Beyond the deep blue line, there are questions about who will seize the number one job in net. This isn’t 2007, where Carey Price clearly owned the role. It’ll be an intriguing battle between Thomas Milic (Seattle Thunderbirds) and Benjamin Gaudreau (Sarnia Sting). Yet as long as Williams can rely on one steady hand, absolute netminding brilliance may not be required for a repeat.

Czechia

The Czechs are hungry to build on August’s fourth-place finish, a result they last achieved in 2018. They haven’t won gold since back-to-back titles in 2000 and 2001 – current coach Radim Rulik suited up in those triumphs – or even medaled since 2005’s bronze. But their odds of making the podium in Halifax are boosted by their built-in chemistry. With 16 returning players, there is quality and experience at every position.

Up front, 2022 captain and leading scorer Jan Mysak has aged out. But explosive 18-year-old centre Jiri Kulich (Rochester Americans) will look to build on his August performance (2+6=8). Czech fans are also excited to see what talented 17-year-old Eduard Sale – who tied for the team lead with eight assists at the 2022 U18 Worlds – does in his World Junior debut. The right winger is a top-10 prospect for 2023.

Defence is an even stronger suit for Rulik. David Jiricek, who debuted with the Columbus Blue Jackets this season after getting drafted sixth overall in 2022, has excelled with the AHL’s Cleveland Monsters (4+12=16 in 17 games). From Connor Bedard’s teammate Stanislav Svozil (Regina Pats) to fellow puck-mover Tomas Hamara (Kitchener Rangers), we can expect big-time contributions from North America-based rearguards.

In net, Tomas Suchanek (Tri-City Americans) wants to show that his 28-save performance in the 4-2 quarter-final shocker over the U.S. was no fluke. How this team reacts and grows after a challenging opener against host Canada will be crucial.

Finland

Ever-competitive Finland last won this tournament in 2019, coming within a hair’s-breadth of edging Canada in the 2022 final in Edmonton. The Finns own five World Junior golds altogether, dating back to 1987, and morphed into a legitimate annual contender in the mid-2010’s. This year’s Suomi roster isn’t as star-studded as some of its precedessors. Yet as we’ve seen at all IIHF levels recently, Finland is almost always greater than the sum of its parts.

At forward, Joakim Kemell – Nashville’s 2022 first-round pick (17th overall) and the second-leading tournament scorer in August (4+12=16) – is back with his blazing speed and fearsome one-timer. Third-time World Junior participant Brad Lambert, who owns bronze from 2021 and silver from 2022, aspires to go out on a high. The fleet-footed 19-year-old Winnipeg Jets prospect has had just two goals in 12 World Junior games and was a healthy scratch for the August final. Returnees Ville Koivunen (Karpat) and Oliver Kapanen (KalPa) should provide secondary scoring.

On defence, Aleksi Heimosalmi (Assat) leads the way as an offensive sparkplug who chipped in a point per game in Edmonton and will run the power play in Moncton. There’s plenty of intrigue around how highly skilled 16-year-old TPS Turku product Aron Kiviharju will fare in his WJC maiden voyage. Eligible for the 2024 NHL Draft, he’s already appeared in six Liiga games this year and produced 12 assists in 13 games with TPS’s U20 squad.

It’s unclear whether Aku Koskenvuo (Harvard) or Jani Lampinen (Kiekko-Espoo) will be the number one goalie. But thinking back to how adeptly Juha Jatkola took over from starter Leevi Merilainen in Edmonton, the Finns should be poised for another medal run regardless of who’s in net. First, they’ll vie to outdo the U.S. for top spot in Group B.

Germany

Finishing sixth with a workmanlike team in Edmonton in August was a coup for coach Tobias Abstreiter. Age and experience will be on Germany’s side in Halifax, even if they’re unlikely to make tons of highlight-reel plays. More than half this roster consists of returning players, and 20 Germans are 19-year-olds, with just five 18-year-olds. 

Big netminder Nikita Quapp, a Carolina sixth-rounder in 2021, has played just two games this year in the German second division. The 19-year-old will be motivated to improve on the 4.80 GAA and 89.3 save percentage he recorded in two starts at the 2022 World Juniors. Quapp’s defencemen can bring physicality – especially big boys like Adrian Klein (Straubing Tigers) and Rayan Bettahar (Eisbaren Berlin) – but won’t put up many points.

For these forwards, it’ll be offence by committee. 2022 scoring leader Bennet Rossmy potted three of his four goals in Germany’s concluding losses to Sweden (5-1) and Finland (5-2), and also brings winning experience from his championship run with Eisbaren Berlin last year. The Heigl twins, Thomas and Nikolaus), return with good chemistry from RB Hockey Juniors in Austria. And Julian Lutz (EHC Munchen), 18, will be closely watched as the 2022 Arizona second-round pick makes his World Junior debut.

Germany will face adversity from the get-go, playing Sweden and Canada on consecutive days. Deutschland must come out in top form against Austria on 30 December to preserve its hopes of staying in the top division for a fifth straight time. The Germans fell 4-3 in overtime to Austria in exhibition play, so they can’t take anything for granted.

Latvia

Nothing comes easy for Latvia in international hockey. And starting off this tournament against the powerful Americans on Boxing Day will be a true baptism of fire.

In August, the tiny but gritty Baltic nation overachieved as it returned to the top division for the first time since 2017. Latvia posted its best finish ever with seventh place. Then-captain Ralfs Bergmanis keyed the preliminary round’s biggest upset, scoring a hat trick to shock the Czechs 5-2, but the savvy D-man has aged out. Does the 2023 squad – featuring plenty of U.S. college and Canadian major junior flavour – have what it takes to avoid relegation once again?

The Latvians are bringing back all three of their 2022 NHL-drafted forwards: Dans Locmelis (Boston), Klavs Veinbergs (Tampa Bay), and Sandis Vilmanis (Florida). That said, none produced more than two points in Edmonton. On the blue line, returnees Bogdans Hodass of the WHL’s Medicine Hat Tigers and Gustavs Ozolins of the USHL’s Minnesota Wilderness must be steady workhorses as 19-year-olds.

Ultimately, though, Latvia’s fragile hopes of survival will come down to goaltending. With 2022 hero Bruno Bruveris in the rear view mirror, Patriks Berzins of the Danbury Jr. Hat Tricks must build on his lone appearance in Edmonton. He made 39 saves in the opening 5-2 loss to Canada and kept the score at 1-1 till just past the halfway mark.

Beating fellow underdog Switzerland on Day Two would be huge for Latvia. Another quarter-final berth is conceivable.

Slovakia

Did you know that Slovakia has finished eighth a whopping 12 times in its 27 top-division World Junior appearances? Stats like that make it hard to believe that the Slovaks, who came ninth in 2022, are destined for anything better than a quarter-final exit.

Still, 2022 was an history-making year for the Central European nation. Slovakia won a surprising Olympic bronze medal in Beijing and saw power forward Juraj Slafkovsky and puck-moving defenceman Simon Nemec drafted first and second overall by Montreal and New Jersey. It sparks some optimism that the Maritimes could hold good things for coach Ivan Fenes’ team.

While Slafkovsky remains with the Habs, Nemec will anchor the Slovak blue line. He must be close to the tournament’s top D-man for them to make a serious run. The 18-year-old has shone early on with the AHL’s Utica Devils, delivering 12 points in 24 games.

At forward, the Slovaks are also heavy on key players aged 18 and under. Montreal’s other 2022 Slovak first-round pick, Filip Mesar (Kitchener Rangers), has started strongly with 17 points in 22 OHL games. The intensity of Adam Sykora (HK Nitra), a New York Rangers second-rounder who scored twice at the 2022 men’s Worlds but had just one goal in Edmonton, could also be a big asset. The nifty Dalibor Dvorsky (AIK) – a potential top-10 pick in 2023 – has made strides in Hockey Allsvenskan this season, although his defence still needs work.

Slovakia boasts two bronze medals all-time (1999, 2015). This group is mostly likely to finish third in Group B behind the U.S. and Finns. Questionable goaltending will likely stop them from advancing in the playoffs, though.

Sweden

Despite a cornucopia of talent, Sweden’s latest gold medal drought stretches back to 2012. The Juniorkronorna’s only other title came in 1981. They settled for bronze in 2020 and 2022. For 2023, the Swedes enter with a respectable, strong roster. But it’s hard to label them as favourites versus Canada, Finland, or the United States.

Goaltender Carl Lindbom, 19, enters as the starter. Lindbom didn’t play in August despite being on the roster. The 2021 seventh-round pick of the Vegas Golden Knights has excelled with a 1.78 GAA and 93.6 save percentage for Djurgarden in 21 HockeyAllsvenskan games this season.

The blue line is decent but unspectacular in the absence of Detroit Red Wings prospect Simon Edvinsson. There’s just one 2022 returnee in Ludvig Jansson, drafted this year in the fourth round by the Florida Panthers. The Sodertalje product, 18, went pointless in four outings in Edmonton. Skelleftea’s Axel Sandin-Pellikka is a potential 2023 first-round pick and will look to make an impression at age 17. Rogle’s Adam Engstrom, a 19-year-old making his World Junior debut, also brings a good skating game, if not much offence.

Sweden’s strongest suit is its forwards. This is Fabian Lysell’s last chance to dominate at a World Juniors at age 19. The top Boston Bruins prospect has racked up 19 points in 20 AHL games with Providence so far this year. Buffalo’s 2021 first-rounder Isak Rosen has also come out strong in his first AHL campaign with Rochester. Lysell and Rosen need to bring their A-games, but they should also get some offensive support.

After struggling with Djurgarden, Jonathan Lekkerimaki – chosen 15th overall by Vancouver this year – yearns to rediscover the form that brought him the 2022 U18 Worlds scoring title with 15 points. Noah Ostlund (16th overall to Buffalo) and Liam Ohgren (19th overall to Minnesota), Lekkerimaki’s Djurgarden teammates, have been quite productive in Allsvenskan, though. And Orebro’s Leo Carlsson, just 17, has impressed with 14 SHL points in 24 games.

Perhaps the best reason to believe in gold is head coach Magnus Havelid’s recent record. He’s taken over from Tomas Monten, whose run lasted from 2017 to 2022. Havelid, a 51-year-old Enkoping native, guided Sweden to victory at both the 2019 U18 Worlds in Ornskoldsvik and the 2022 tournament in Landshut. In 2019, Havelid had a stacked roster, including Lucas Raymond, Alexander Holtz, and Philip Broberg. This year, his Swedes surprisingly rode goalie Hugo Havelid (Magnus’s nephew) to victory. They got outshot 93-38 on aggregate in their semi-final and gold-medal wins over Finland and the U.S. respectively.

Bottom line: this coach finds a way. And that’s what Sweden needs at the World Juniors.

Switzerland

Switzerland has just one bronze medal in WJC history (1998). In the new millennium, it’s mustered a plucky fourth-place run about once every decade (2002, 2010, 2019). Can we believe head coach Marco Bayer’s group will make it out of Moncton to vie for a medal this year?

If that happens, it’ll be the definition of “stumping the experts.”

Starting goalie Kevin Pasche, 19, went winless in three Edmonton starts en route to eighth place. Pasche has endured a so-so season as a backup with the USHL’s Omaha Lancers (3.36 GAA, 89.6 save percentage in 11 games). His defence will get an upgrade from August. Lian Bichsel, Dallas’s 2022 first-rounder (18th overall), missed the last World Juniors in a dispute with the Swiss federation over the towering Leksand blueliner’s skipping a summer camp. But Bichsel is ready to go this time. Returning 19-year-old Brian Zanetti of the Peterborough Petes, a Philadelphia fourth-rounder (110th overall) last year, will look to elevate his game.

With that said, the Swiss tied Latvia and Slovakia for the second-fewest total goals in August (11), and they lack scoring forwards. Attilio Biasca did his best in Edmonton. The undrafted attacker scored the late 3-2 winner against Austria to lift Switzerland into the playoffs and then tallied twice in a 6-3 quarter-final loss to Canada. However, the current Halifax Mooseheads captain, 19, will need to be extra-fired up about competing on Atlantic Canada ice in order to improve on that performance. Second-year Moncton Wildcats forward Jonas Taibel, who scored twice at the 2022 World Juniors, will certainly get some local cheers.

Edging out either Slovakia or Latvia for a playoff berth in Group B isn’t a sure thing. Yet on paper, it looks nearly certain that the Swiss won’t do better than another quarter-final exit.

United States

The Americans are eager to rebound from their shocking 2022 4-2 quarter-final loss to Czechia. Both expectations and confidence are high after new head coach Rand Pecknold’s squad downed Finland (5-2) and Sweden (5-1) in pre-tournament play. With eight returning players and plenty of talented newcomers, they could threaten Canada’s dream of repeating at home.

Six of the U.S.’s seven first-round picks from 2021 and 2022 are at forward. This group should have no trouble scoring in the group stage. Expect Logan Cooley (University of Minnesota) and Cutter Gauthier (Boston College) to flaunt why they were top-10 choices for Arizona and Philadelphia respectively this year. They bring exquisite vision and playmaking. And Winnipeg fans are salivating at the prospect of Chaz Lucius (Manitoba Moose) and Rutger McGroarty (University of Michigan) filling the net in their World Junior debuts.

On defence, captain Luke Hughes, another of the five University of Michigan players on this roster, will be motivated to bring home a gold medal. His famous NHL brothers, Jack Hughes of the New Jersey Devils and Quinn Hughes of the Vancouver Canucks, were unable to achieve that feat in their World Junior careers. Luke Hughes could get competition from Lane Hutson in terms of the scoring lead among U.S. blueliners. Slender but slippery, the NCAA rookie has racked up 18 points in 16 games with Boston University, and was named Best D-man at the last U18 Worlds.

However, will one of the three NHL-draft eligible goalies will take charge in a championship run? Kaidan Mbereko is eager to put the memory of last year’s playoff exit behind him. The 19-year-old has posted great numbers (2.26 GAA, 92.6 save percentage) with Colorado College this season. He’s Pecknold’s logical go-to. Gifted 17-year-old Trey Augustine (USNTDP) will aim to make his mark, while Andrew Oke (Saginaw Spirit) would love to play more than the two periods he got in August in a 7-0 walloping of Austria.

Without a John Gibson (2013) or Spencer Knight (2021) between the pipes, a sixth all-time U.S. World Junior gold medal is still feasible. But Canada, at least on paper, has the upper hand between the North American rivals at the 2023 World Juniors.