After beating Switzerland to advance to the quarter-finals, can host Latvia swing another upset versus Sweden? That's one of the topics our IIHF.com writers contemplate in our latest 4 by 4 edition.
photo: © International Ice Hockey Federation / Matt Zambonin
Players, coaches, fans, and media...everybody’s counting down the hours until the 2023 IIHF Ice Hockey World Championship quarter-finals kick off in Tampere and Riga. To set the stage and look at the big picture, we once again invited our panel of veteran IIHF.com contributors – Lucas Aykroyd, Derek O’Brien, Andrew Podnieks, and Andy Potts – to share their insights. Four questions and four answers for four writers covering 16 teams. It’s 4 by 4 time!
For you, what was the biggest story of the preliminary round?
Derek: For me, there’s no doubt that in Riga, the biggest story was the last game. That is, Latvia beating previously unbeaten Switzerland and reaching the quarter-finals. What a game it was, particularly in the third period when Switzerland scored twice to take the lead but Latvia answered. Latvia has made the quarters a handful of times before, but the fact that they’ve done it on home ice and now get a quarter-final game on home ice is something special.
Andrew: I’ll choose one story from each venue just to make things interesting because there are two that stand out. As Derek noted, Latvia making the quarter-finals was huge. The emotion – in the arena and on the streets – was bone-chilling. Skill gave the Latvians the means to beat the Swiss 4-3 in overtime, but emotion carried them from start to finish. And in Tampere, few would have predicted a 7-0 U.S. run. It’s a familiar type of U.S. roster with lots of young and skilled players, including products of their junior program and the college ranks. But this has been USA Hockey’s m.o. for quite some time and it’s never produced a run like this. Wow!
Andy: I’ll second that motion. Pre-tournament, we talked about the possibility of seeing a star emerge from the U.S. youngsters. It’s been more of a constellation, and it’s been great to watch in Tampere. Among many impressive performances, Cutter Gauthier and Lane Hutson stand out with mature contributions on and off the ice as the Americans have exceeded expectations.
Lucas: For me, it’s been that lingering question mark around whether the Finns – the reigning Olympic and world champions – have what it takes to repeat on home ice. Coach Jukka Jalonen’s team wasn’t very convincing in its first three games against contenders, or even in the 5-3 win over a French team that finished 12th. I’m hard-pressed to rate the victories over Hungary, Austria, or Denmark. Is goalie Emil Larmi dialed in enough? Will Mikko Rantanen ever get a goal? Is the so-so power play – three out of Suomi’s six PP goals were against Hungary – going to show up in the quarter-final showdown with Canada? So many unknowns.
Multiple players have a shot at the 2023 scoring title. Who’s your pick to win right now?
Andy: Oh, I’ll be rooting for Sweden’s Henrik Tommernes, but only on condition that he gets there entirely with assists. (Ahem.) He has a tournament-high 10 assists so far.
Derek: Dominik Kubalik had a pretty wide lead earlier, but that’s narrowed, and he’d be unlikely to hold it if Czechia goes out in the quarter-finals. Then you look at a little-known American forward with 10 points named T.J. Tynan. At age 31, he has just 21 NHL games to his credit, but appears to fit in beautifully alongside Cutter Gauthier. If this U.S. team is going to win the gold medal, he’s a perfect pick for the scoring title.
Andrew: You have to consider who will remain hot and whose team will go the furthest. Kubalik has the one-timer down from the opposite side, making him dangerous on the power play. Tynan and Rocco Grimaldi have shone with the Americans. I’ll rule out Tommernes and Canada’s MacKenzie Weegar just because defenders rarely top the scoring stats. I’ll go with Tynan, a natural playmaker on a team that could very well play in Game 64.
Lucas: The field is truly wide-open. So I’ll take a dark horse in Sweden’s Oscar Lindberg. Sure, he’s got some ground to make up with three goals and five assists, but I like Tre Kronor’s odds of making the final four, and Lindberg has been a catalyst every time he’s out there in Tampere.
What’s your most vivid memory from a World Championship quarter-final you covered?
Lucas: It’s got to be the 2003 Sweden-Finland quarter-final in Helsinki – arguably the biggest disaster in Finnish hockey history. The Finns went up 5-1 and lost 6-5. The 13,000-odd fans were going bananas, and the media tribune was right down there amid the crowd. I remember Deep Purple’s “Smoke On The Water” was Finland’s goal song, and seeing how jacked up Teemu Selanne was when he completed his hat trick for the fifth goal. And then the sickly hush that fell as the Swedes worked their way back into the game. Especially after Peter Forsberg’s end-to-end rush and wraparound goal to tie the game – right in front of me – before P-J Axelsson got the winner. You rarely see a meltdown or comeback like that in a do-or-die game.
Andy: More recently, the two 2019 games in Kosice stick in the mind. First, Canada saved itself with a goal in the final second of regulation to edge past Switzerland. Then, a hitherto underwhelming Finland played a 4-4 tie against Sweden before Sakari Manninen grabbed the overtime winner. The scorer of Finland’s tying goal, 90 seconds before the hooter, was this gangling, unprepossessing forward called Marko Anttila. Ultimately, Finland got the gold and Anttila got a reputation for clutch goals in knockout games. Could we see a repeat from Mörkö this year?
Derek: For a writer, the games that evoke vivid memories are usually those that force a late-game rewrite due to a big comeback. I remember 2022 in Tampere, where Sweden led 3-0 until the last half of the third period before Canada came back to tie it late. By the time the game went into overtime and then the Canadians went to the power play, there was no way they weren’t going to win it.
Andrew: Great minds think alike! Like Andy and Derek, I also harken back to Finland’s 2019 win over Sweden and Canada’s 2022 win over Sweden. Overtime classics, for sure. Sometimes it’s not WHO wins that matters, it’s HOW.
Where do you foresee a potential surprise in these quarter-finals?
Andrew: Most years, you can predict the four winners at a glance. This year, however, everything is topsy-turvy. At Worlds, you’d historically take Czechia over the U.S., but this year, that’d be a surprise. Switzerland-Germany? Switzerland. Except the Germans, I think, can do some damage. I didn’t like Swiss coach Patrick Fischer’s tactic of resting his stars against Latvia. I think it stalled Switzerland’s incredible momentum. They had a day off before that game and a day off today. Fatigue wouldn’t have been a problem. Sweden-Latvia? Well, you’d take Sweden 10 times out of 10, but the incredible emotions and fan support the Latvians will get just might be enough. And either Canada or Finland can win in any given year, but this year, a Finland win would be expected.
Andy: I’d suggest Sweden could be vulnerable versus Latvia. Tre Kronor have been efficient rather than overwhelming so far. The Swedes also had to make late travel plans after the pairings changed with Latvia’s OT win over Switzerland. Throw in a bearpit of an arena in Riga and you might just have the ingredients for a shock result.
Lucas: I see Andy’s points, but ultimately I think coach Sam Hallam’s Swedes will find a way. Tre Kronor hasn’t played for a medal since winning it all in 2018, so the motivation is high, and this is a favourable matchup. On the other hand, the U.S. has been much better than Czechia, with a 34-8 goal difference compared to the Czechs’ 22-16. But playoffs are when experience counts, and the canny Czechs – with an average age of 29 to the U.S.’s 25 – could find a way to deny America’s ambitions.
Derek: Do I dare pick Latvia over Sweden? It’s maybe not as crazy as it sounds, given the high the Latvians are on, playing at home, and the trouble Sweden has had in recent quarter-finals. It would still be a major upset, though. The U.S. and Switzerland both had fantastic group stages but face opponents that could potentially take them down. Just two years ago, here in Riga, fourth-seeded Germany knocked off first-seeded Switzerland, although the 2023 Swiss team looks more formidable.
For you, what was the biggest story of the preliminary round?
Derek: For me, there’s no doubt that in Riga, the biggest story was the last game. That is, Latvia beating previously unbeaten Switzerland and reaching the quarter-finals. What a game it was, particularly in the third period when Switzerland scored twice to take the lead but Latvia answered. Latvia has made the quarters a handful of times before, but the fact that they’ve done it on home ice and now get a quarter-final game on home ice is something special.
Andrew: I’ll choose one story from each venue just to make things interesting because there are two that stand out. As Derek noted, Latvia making the quarter-finals was huge. The emotion – in the arena and on the streets – was bone-chilling. Skill gave the Latvians the means to beat the Swiss 4-3 in overtime, but emotion carried them from start to finish. And in Tampere, few would have predicted a 7-0 U.S. run. It’s a familiar type of U.S. roster with lots of young and skilled players, including products of their junior program and the college ranks. But this has been USA Hockey’s m.o. for quite some time and it’s never produced a run like this. Wow!
Andy: I’ll second that motion. Pre-tournament, we talked about the possibility of seeing a star emerge from the U.S. youngsters. It’s been more of a constellation, and it’s been great to watch in Tampere. Among many impressive performances, Cutter Gauthier and Lane Hutson stand out with mature contributions on and off the ice as the Americans have exceeded expectations.
Lucas: For me, it’s been that lingering question mark around whether the Finns – the reigning Olympic and world champions – have what it takes to repeat on home ice. Coach Jukka Jalonen’s team wasn’t very convincing in its first three games against contenders, or even in the 5-3 win over a French team that finished 12th. I’m hard-pressed to rate the victories over Hungary, Austria, or Denmark. Is goalie Emil Larmi dialed in enough? Will Mikko Rantanen ever get a goal? Is the so-so power play – three out of Suomi’s six PP goals were against Hungary – going to show up in the quarter-final showdown with Canada? So many unknowns.
Multiple players have a shot at the 2023 scoring title. Who’s your pick to win right now?
Andy: Oh, I’ll be rooting for Sweden’s Henrik Tommernes, but only on condition that he gets there entirely with assists. (Ahem.) He has a tournament-high 10 assists so far.
Derek: Dominik Kubalik had a pretty wide lead earlier, but that’s narrowed, and he’d be unlikely to hold it if Czechia goes out in the quarter-finals. Then you look at a little-known American forward with 10 points named T.J. Tynan. At age 31, he has just 21 NHL games to his credit, but appears to fit in beautifully alongside Cutter Gauthier. If this U.S. team is going to win the gold medal, he’s a perfect pick for the scoring title.
Andrew: You have to consider who will remain hot and whose team will go the furthest. Kubalik has the one-timer down from the opposite side, making him dangerous on the power play. Tynan and Rocco Grimaldi have shone with the Americans. I’ll rule out Tommernes and Canada’s MacKenzie Weegar just because defenders rarely top the scoring stats. I’ll go with Tynan, a natural playmaker on a team that could very well play in Game 64.
Lucas: The field is truly wide-open. So I’ll take a dark horse in Sweden’s Oscar Lindberg. Sure, he’s got some ground to make up with three goals and five assists, but I like Tre Kronor’s odds of making the final four, and Lindberg has been a catalyst every time he’s out there in Tampere.
What’s your most vivid memory from a World Championship quarter-final you covered?
Lucas: It’s got to be the 2003 Sweden-Finland quarter-final in Helsinki – arguably the biggest disaster in Finnish hockey history. The Finns went up 5-1 and lost 6-5. The 13,000-odd fans were going bananas, and the media tribune was right down there amid the crowd. I remember Deep Purple’s “Smoke On The Water” was Finland’s goal song, and seeing how jacked up Teemu Selanne was when he completed his hat trick for the fifth goal. And then the sickly hush that fell as the Swedes worked their way back into the game. Especially after Peter Forsberg’s end-to-end rush and wraparound goal to tie the game – right in front of me – before P-J Axelsson got the winner. You rarely see a meltdown or comeback like that in a do-or-die game.
Andy: More recently, the two 2019 games in Kosice stick in the mind. First, Canada saved itself with a goal in the final second of regulation to edge past Switzerland. Then, a hitherto underwhelming Finland played a 4-4 tie against Sweden before Sakari Manninen grabbed the overtime winner. The scorer of Finland’s tying goal, 90 seconds before the hooter, was this gangling, unprepossessing forward called Marko Anttila. Ultimately, Finland got the gold and Anttila got a reputation for clutch goals in knockout games. Could we see a repeat from Mörkö this year?
Derek: For a writer, the games that evoke vivid memories are usually those that force a late-game rewrite due to a big comeback. I remember 2022 in Tampere, where Sweden led 3-0 until the last half of the third period before Canada came back to tie it late. By the time the game went into overtime and then the Canadians went to the power play, there was no way they weren’t going to win it.
Andrew: Great minds think alike! Like Andy and Derek, I also harken back to Finland’s 2019 win over Sweden and Canada’s 2022 win over Sweden. Overtime classics, for sure. Sometimes it’s not WHO wins that matters, it’s HOW.
Where do you foresee a potential surprise in these quarter-finals?
Andrew: Most years, you can predict the four winners at a glance. This year, however, everything is topsy-turvy. At Worlds, you’d historically take Czechia over the U.S., but this year, that’d be a surprise. Switzerland-Germany? Switzerland. Except the Germans, I think, can do some damage. I didn’t like Swiss coach Patrick Fischer’s tactic of resting his stars against Latvia. I think it stalled Switzerland’s incredible momentum. They had a day off before that game and a day off today. Fatigue wouldn’t have been a problem. Sweden-Latvia? Well, you’d take Sweden 10 times out of 10, but the incredible emotions and fan support the Latvians will get just might be enough. And either Canada or Finland can win in any given year, but this year, a Finland win would be expected.
Andy: I’d suggest Sweden could be vulnerable versus Latvia. Tre Kronor have been efficient rather than overwhelming so far. The Swedes also had to make late travel plans after the pairings changed with Latvia’s OT win over Switzerland. Throw in a bearpit of an arena in Riga and you might just have the ingredients for a shock result.
Lucas: I see Andy’s points, but ultimately I think coach Sam Hallam’s Swedes will find a way. Tre Kronor hasn’t played for a medal since winning it all in 2018, so the motivation is high, and this is a favourable matchup. On the other hand, the U.S. has been much better than Czechia, with a 34-8 goal difference compared to the Czechs’ 22-16. But playoffs are when experience counts, and the canny Czechs – with an average age of 29 to the U.S.’s 25 – could find a way to deny America’s ambitions.
Derek: Do I dare pick Latvia over Sweden? It’s maybe not as crazy as it sounds, given the high the Latvians are on, playing at home, and the trouble Sweden has had in recent quarter-finals. It would still be a major upset, though. The U.S. and Switzerland both had fantastic group stages but face opponents that could potentially take them down. Just two years ago, here in Riga, fourth-seeded Germany knocked off first-seeded Switzerland, although the 2023 Swiss team looks more formidable.